Hunch. On 7 November Luis Planas called the 12% withdrawal absolutely necessary and carefully designed, and the only body that can lower it before March is his own ministry.
The share market resolves YES if by 31 March 2027 Spain lowers the 12% or ends the order, through a decision in the official journal, the BOE, or through a ruling on the bottlers' appeal, which the BOE does not print and which counts if the ministry's website announces it or El País and Reuters both report it. A court order that pauses the duty without changing the 12% counts as NO, and so does 12% still in force on 31 March.
We looked for cases where a government, or a group of producing countries, ordered producers to keep part of a product already made off the market for a set time. We found seven such orders from 2006 to 2019. Five were rubber export cuts by Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. (World Bank; The Jakarta Post; Al Jazeera; EUR-Lex)