Will Spotify report more Premium subscribers for the first quarter of 2026 than for the fourth quarter of 2025, in results published by 30 April 2026?

Two of the last four major streaming price rises since 2019 were followed by subscriber growth in the next quarter, and the window and the full record are the same four cases. Both of the clean ones were Spotify's own. Music has no proven churn response yet; video has two. The structural argument for music is that there is one catalogue, and leaving means rebuilding a decade of playlists — but a third rise in three years is a different proposition from a first, and which precedent governs is exactly what is unresolved.