Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market16 Jan 2026

Will Spotify report 745 million or more monthly active users in its fourth-quarter 2025 results?

BinaryResolves 10 Feb 2026
Hunch62%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Spotify reported 751 million monthly active users for the fourth quarter of 2025, a record quarterly gain of 38 million helped by the Wrapped promotion (Variety and Bloomberg, 10 February 2026).

Resolved 10 Feb 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on Spotify's fourth-quarter 2025 shareholder deck as first published at investors.spotify.com; YES if the monthly active users figure stated there is 745 million or more. If results are not published by 23:59 CET on 17 February 2026, the market resolves NO. If that source has not published in time, Bloomberg and Variety settle it.

The pattern behind it

2 of 4
Two of the last four major streaming price rises since 2019 were followed by subscriber growth in the next quarter, and the window and the full record are the same four cases. Both of the clean ones were Spotify's own. Music has no proven churn response yet; video has two. The structural argument for music is that there is one catalogue, and leaving means rebuilding a decade of playlists — but a third rise in three years is a different proposition from a first, and which precedent governs is exactly what is unresolved.

We found four big streaming price rises since 2019. Each raised the main single-person plan of a large music or video service in its biggest market. For each we asked one thing: did the service have more subscribers in the first quarter at the new price than in the quarter before? Spotify's two earlier rises passed. Netflix's two did not.