Hunch. Unlike the two leaders before him, Murray quit with no claim against him, and both he and the council said on 27 October that he stays a Reform councillor.
The Murray market resolves on the Staffordshire County Council news page: YES if at the end of 10 December 2026 Martin Murray still sits on the council as a Reform UK member, and NO if before then he leaves Reform UK or its council group, is expelled or gives up his seat. His councillor page is closed to scripts, so BBC News and PA Media are the backups, and two of them decide if the council page does not open.
We looked for cases where the leader of the ruling group on an English council stood down in the middle of a term, and the full council had to vote on the successor the group named. We found eight such changes from 2015 to 2026. Each time we checked whether the council elected the named person at its first meeting with that vote.