Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market23 Jun 2026

Will GBP/USD close above $1.3181 on 22 September 2026?

BinaryResolves 22 Sep 2026
History2 of 5
Hunch40%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The Bank of England's 4pm spot rate for 22 September 2026 was $1.3348, above $1.3181, per the Bank's daily exchange rate series XUDLUSS.

Resolved 22 Sep 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on the Bank of England's published daily spot exchange rate (4pm London) for 22 September 2026, on bankofengland.co.uk; YES if that rate is above 1.3181. If 22 September is not a business day, the next published rate governs. By 23:59 BST on 23 September 2026. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and the Financial Times closing quotes for the same day settle it.

The pattern behind it

2 of 5
In two of the last five mid-term prime-ministerial resignations, sterling was higher three months later; the window and the full record since 1990 are the same five cases. The split is honest and it hinges on the successor: continuity candidates (Major 1990, Sunak 2022) lifted the pound; contested or riskier transitions (2016, 2019, July 2022) sank it. This one resolves on who wins the Labour contest — and what they say about the fiscal rules.

We looked at every UK prime minister who quit mid-term since 1990. There are five, whatever the reason they left, and all five are shown. We asked one thing: was the pound higher against the dollar three months after the resignation day than on it? The first market asks the same about 22 September. The day itself is usually quiet, because the damage comes before it. The three months after are split, and they depend on whether the next leader looks like stability or more risk.