The Bank of England's published daily 4pm spot rate never fell below $1.30 in the window; the low was $1.3148 on 24 June (Bank of England daily spot rates).
The market resolves on the Bank of England's published daily spot exchange rates for every business day from 23 June to 9 August 2026; YES if any of them is below 1.3000, otherwise NO at expiry. Intraday prints on trading platforms do not count. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and the Financial Times settle it.
We looked at every UK prime minister who quit mid-term since 1990. There are five, whatever the reason they left, and all five are shown. We asked one thing: was the pound higher against the dollar three months after the resignation day than on it? The first market asks the same about 22 September. The day itself is usually quiet, because the damage comes before it. The three months after are split, and they depend on whether the next leader looks like stability or more risk.