Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market23 Jun 2026

Where does GBP/USD close on 31 July 2026?

Multiple choiceResolves 31 Jul 2026
Hunch
Below $1.309%
$1.30 to $1.319938%
$1.32 to $1.339942%
$1.34 or above11%
Your forecast
  • Below $1.30
  • $1.30 to $1.3199
  • $1.32 to $1.3399
  • $1.34 or above
Resolved
Resolved: $1.34 or above

The Bank of England's published 4pm spot rate for 31 July was $1.3457, above the top band (Bank of England daily spot rates).

Resolved 31 Jul 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on the Bank of England's published daily spot exchange rate for 31 July 2026; the band containing that rate resolves. Later revisions to the published series do not change the resolution. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and the Financial Times closing quotes for 31 July 2026 settle it.

The pattern behind it

2 of 5
In two of the last five mid-term prime-ministerial resignations, sterling was higher three months later; the window and the full record since 1990 are the same five cases. The split is honest and it hinges on the successor: continuity candidates (Major 1990, Sunak 2022) lifted the pound; contested or riskier transitions (2016, 2019, July 2022) sank it. This one resolves on who wins the Labour contest — and what they say about the fiscal rules.

We looked at every UK prime minister who quit mid-term since 1990. There are five, whatever the reason they left, and all five are shown. We asked one thing: was the pound higher against the dollar three months after the resignation day than on it? The first market asks the same about 22 September. The day itself is usually quiet, because the damage comes before it. The three months after are split, and they depend on whether the next leader looks like stability or more risk.