Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market04 Sep 2026

Does Kristersson's bloc win more Riksdag seats than the left bloc in the 13 Sep 2026 election?

BinaryResolves 14 Sep 2026
History50%
Hunch40%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The final count gave the left bloc 176 seats against 173 for the government bloc. The Social Democrats took 99, the Left 30, the Centre 25 and the Greens 22. The Moderates took 70, the Sweden Democrats 62, the Christian Democrats 22 and the Liberals 19. The Swedish Election Authority published the final result and decided the seat allocation on 19 September 2026, in decision VAL-735-2026.

Resolved 19 Sep 2026
How this resolves

Resolves YES if the preliminary count published by the Swedish Election Authority (val.se) on election night, confirmed by the final count, gives the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals and Sweden Democrats combined more seats than the Social Democrats, Greens, Left and Centre combined. A tie resolves NO. If val.se is unreachable, the seat count as reported by at least two of Reuters, BBC News and Al Jazeera suffices.

The pattern behind it

4 of 8
In four of the last eight Riksdag elections, from 1994 to 2022, the sitting government's bloc won more seats than its rivals and stayed in office: 1998, 2002, 2010 and 2018. The 1991 election, outside the window, went the other way, four of nine in the full record. Two of the four were close, 173 seats to 156 in 2010 and 144 to 143 in 2018. The five removals, in 1991, 1994, 2006, 2014 and 2022, ranged from a three-seat gap in 2022 to 53 seats in 1994.

In four of the last eight elections the government stayed in power. We looked at every Swedish election since 1991, nine in all, and show the last eight. In four, the government's side won more seats than its rivals and stayed in office, and in four it lost. In every close race, the seat count turned on which small parties cleared the 4% line.