Kristersson asked to be released from office on 17 September 2026 and the Speaker discharged him and every other minister the same day, as the Government Offices record. The mandatory prime minister vote will therefore not be held: chapter 6, article 3 of the Instrument of Government says the vote is dropped when the prime minister has already been discharged. Kristersson and his ministers only carry on as a caretaker government until a new government takes office, and on 18 September the Speaker gave Magdalena Andersson the mandate to sound out one. The YES condition became unreachable on 17 September, so the market resolves NO (Government Offices, 17 Sep 2026; Riksdag, 17 and 18 Sep 2026).
Resolves YES if, by 23:59 CET on 31 October 2026, the Riksdag's record on riksdagen.se shows Ulf Kristersson either confirmed as prime minister in the mandatory vote after the election or not voted out by it, and he remains in office on that date. Resolves NO if the Riksdag removes him or the Speaker nominates another prime minister who is approved by then. If riksdagen.se is unreachable, reports by at least two of Reuters, BBC News and Al Jazeera suffice.
In four of the last eight elections the government stayed in power. We looked at every Swedish election since 1991, nine in all, and show the last eight. In four, the government's side won more seats than its rivals and stayed in office, and in four it lost. In every close race, the seat count turned on which small parties cleared the 4% line.