Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market04 Sep 2026

Do the Liberals reach 4.00% of the national vote in the final count of the 13 Sep 2026 election?

BinaryResolves 18 Sep 2026
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Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The Liberals took 5.34 per cent of the national vote and 19 of the 349 seats, clear of the 4 per cent threshold. The share comes from the final count published by the Swedish Election Authority on 19 September 2026 and from its decision on the Riksdag result of the same date, which records 361,187 votes for the party.

Resolved 19 Sep 2026
How this resolves

Resolves YES if the Liberals' national vote share in the final count published on val.se is 4.00% or higher. If the final count is not published by 18 September, the preliminary count on val.se governs; if val.se is unreachable, the share as reported by at least two of Reuters, BBC News and Al Jazeera suffices.

The pattern behind it

4 of 8
In four of the last eight Riksdag elections, from 1994 to 2022, the sitting government's bloc won more seats than its rivals and stayed in office: 1998, 2002, 2010 and 2018. The 1991 election, outside the window, went the other way, four of nine in the full record. Two of the four were close, 173 seats to 156 in 2010 and 144 to 143 in 2018. The five removals, in 1991, 1994, 2006, 2014 and 2022, ranged from a three-seat gap in 2022 to 53 seats in 1994.

In four of the last eight elections the government stayed in power. We looked at every Swedish election since 1991, nine in all, and show the last eight. In four, the government's side won more seats than its rivals and stayed in office, and in four it lost. In every close race, the seat count turned on which small parties cleared the 4% line.