No new prime minister was in office by 5 October 2026: on 2 October the Riksdag speaker restarted Magdalena Andersson's talks from 5 October with a report due by 12 October and a prime minister vote only after that, and regeringen.se still lists Ulf Kristersson leading a caretaker government.
Hunch. The left bloc's majority is three seats and the Centre Party has already said it will not back a government that pays the Left Party in cabinet posts, which is the same four-party bargain that pushed 2022 out to 37 days.
The prime minister market resolves on the Riksdag's own record. It resolves YES only if the Riksdag has approved a new prime minister and that person has taken office before the end of 5 October 2026, as published by riksdagen.se or regeringen.se. Kristersson still serving as caretaker resolves NO. If neither site has published in time, reports by the BBC and Al Jazeera settle it.
Six of the last nine new prime ministers took office on day 19. We looked at every Swedish general election since 1976 after which the prime minister left office and the Riksdag chose a new one. We counted the days from polling day to the day the new prime minister took office. Elections where the prime minister stayed on are left out.