The official provisional yes share on 27 September 2026 was 29.8% of valid votes (789,130 of 2,643,897), below the 34% in the last SRG poll, according to the Federal Statistical Office; Al Jazeera reports about 70% against.
History. 3 of 4. The result beat the last SRG poll in 2014, 2020 and June 2026, and fell short of it in 2018. We found no poll for 2012.
Hunch.
The poll market resolves on the official provisional yes share, as a percentage of valid votes, for the neutrality initiative on 27 September 2026: YES if it is above 34.0%, the figure in the SRG poll published by gfs.bern on 16 September. Reuters and Al Jazeera reports of the official figure are the backup.
We looked for cases where Swiss voters were asked to limit the government's hand abroad, or to reopen or leave international treaties, by a citizens' initiative that the government and parliament told them to reject. We found five, from 2012 to June 2026. In each we compared the result with the last SRG poll and with the vote of the cantons.