History. 1 of 5 (effectively 1 of 4, the two rent laws of 24 Nov 2024 count once): voters approved the pension law on 25 Sep 2022 (50.55%); they rejected the tax at source law in 2022 and the motorway and two rent laws in 2024.
Hunch. On 27 September only 30% of Swiss voters backed a strict neutrality rule, and neutrality is one of the two main arguments against this law.
The approval market resolves on the official result of the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for 29 November 2026: YES if voters approve the change to the War Materiel Act by a simple majority, NO if they reject it. If the vote moves, the same rule applies to the new date, and swissinfo and Reuters reports of the result are the backups.
We looked for cases where Swiss voters decided on a law that parliament had passed and opponents had challenged with signatures, while the government backed it, four questions were on the ballot and a neighbour was building up its army during a war in Europe. We found five such votes, on two days in 2022 and 2024. Each time the side for the law led in the first SRG poll. (Swiss Federal Statistical Office; Swiss Federal Statistical Office; gfs.bern; gfs.bern; German Federal Government; swissinfo)