History. 5 of 5 (effectively 4 of 4): in every past vote the Yes lead of the first SRG poll was smaller on voting day or gone; four times it turned into a No win. The 54% line is today's first-poll lead of 8 points, not a figure from the past votes.
Hunch. On 27 September only 30% of Swiss voters backed a strict neutrality rule, which could help this law win by more.
The 54% market resolves on the national share of Yes votes for the same change in that official result: YES if it is below 54.00%, NO if it is 54.00% or more. If the vote moves or no result is out before the next national vote, the market is void, and swissinfo and Reuters reports are the backups.
We looked for cases where Swiss voters decided on a law that parliament had passed and opponents had challenged with signatures, while the government backed it, four questions were on the ballot and a neighbour was building up its army during a war in Europe. We found five such votes, on two days in 2022 and 2024. Each time the side for the law led in the first SRG poll. (Swiss Federal Statistical Office; Swiss Federal Statistical Office; gfs.bern; gfs.bern; German Federal Government; swissinfo)