Will Tesla's Q2 2026 update show automotive gross margin above Q1's level?
BinaryResolves 30 Jul 2026
Hunch41%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: NO
Tesla's Q2 2026 shareholder update, published 22 July 2026, showed automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits of 16.3 percent, down from 19.2 percent in Q1 2026.
Resolved 22 Jul 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on automotive gross margin in Tesla's official Q2 2026 shareholder update at ir.tesla.com, compared with the Q1 2026 figure stated in the same document. If that source has not published in time, the Tesla quarterly deliveries press release and Bloomberg's coverage of the update settle it.
The pattern behind it
3 of 4
Three of the last four Tesla delivery records were followed by a lower share price within a month of the print: the 2023 second quarter, the 2024 fourth quarter and the 2025 third quarter, each time once the earnings report exposed the margin or the pull-forward behind the volume. The exception, the record reported in January 2020, was confirmed by a clean profit and the shares rose more than 10 per cent. That is the full record of Tesla headline delivery records on this measure.
We looked at every Tesla delivery record since 2020. For each one we checked whether the shares were lower a month after the record was announced. The record itself was always real. Most times, though, the earnings report about three weeks later showed what it had cost.
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