How do Tesla shares close on the first full trading day after Q2 earnings?
Multiple choiceResolves 30 Jul 2026
Hunch
Up 5% or more16%
Up, under 5%27%
Down, under 5%33%
Down 5% or more24%
Your forecast
Up 5% or more
Up, under 5%
Down, under 5%
Down 5% or more
Resolved
Resolved: Down 5% or more
Tesla closed at $319.69 on 23 July 2026, down 14.5% from the prior close of $374.01 on the first full trading day after Q2 results, its biggest one-day drop in a year (Nasdaq closing prices; Bloomberg).
Resolved 23 Jul 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on the same Nasdaq official closing prices, bucketed by percentage move. If that source has not published in time, Bloomberg and the Nasdaq historical price file settle it.
The pattern behind it
3 of 4
Three of the last four Tesla delivery records were followed by a lower share price within a month of the print: the 2023 second quarter, the 2024 fourth quarter and the 2025 third quarter, each time once the earnings report exposed the margin or the pull-forward behind the volume. The exception, the record reported in January 2020, was confirmed by a clean profit and the shares rose more than 10 per cent. That is the full record of Tesla headline delivery records on this measure.
We looked at every Tesla delivery record since 2020. For each one we checked whether the shares were lower a month after the record was announced. The record itself was always real. Most times, though, the earnings report about three weeks later showed what it had cost.
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