Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market10 Nov 2026

Will the Texas Senate strip the Lt Governor's powers by 31 January?

BinaryResolves 1 Feb 2027
Hunch60%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 1 Feb 2027
Why these numbers

History. Not counted: only three times in the past did a newly elected lieutenant governor from the other party come to lead a state Senate. Once, in North Carolina in 1989, the majority took almost all of the office's power over bills. In Mississippi in 2008 and Vermont in 2025 it did not.

Hunch. Dan Patrick, who urged new Senate rules on 9 November, leaves office in January, and the Republican senators who must vote have not said what they will do.

How this resolves

The Senate powers market resolves on the Texas Senate Journal: YES if before 1 February 2027 the Senate votes for a rule that takes from the lieutenant governor, in whole or in part, or shares with senators, a committee or a party group, the power to name committee members or chairs, name conference committees, send bills to committees or set the order of bills on the floor. A change only to the five-ninths vote needed to take up a bill, or only to rules for when the lieutenant governor is away, does not count, and CBS News and PBS NewsHour settle it if the Journal does not open.

The pattern behind it

5 of 8
Five of eight times, a US state majority took at least one power from a newly elected official of the other party before its first regular session ended, and three times it took none.

We looked for cases where a US state election gave an important office to one party while the other party kept its majority in the legislature, and that majority then decided whether to take some of the official's powers before its first regular session ended. We found eight such times since 1985, four of them in North Carolina. Texas has none: every lieutenant governor after Bullock was a Republican. (TIME; CBS News)