Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market10 Nov 2026

Will Texas lawmakers take any power from Vikki Goodwin by 31 May?

BinaryResolves 31 May 2027
History62%
Hunch68%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 31 May 2027
Why these numbers

History. Five of eight: North Carolina in 1985, 1989, 2016 and 2024, and Wisconsin in 2018. No power was taken in Michigan in 2018, Mississippi in 2008 or Vermont in 2025. Three of the five were laws passed in December, before the new official took office.

Hunch. On 9 November outgoing Lt Governor Dan Patrick urged Republican senators to change the Senate rules to protect their conservative majority.

How this resolves

The any-power market resolves on the Texas Senate Journal and, for a law, on Texas Legislature Online: YES if from 10 November 2026 to the end of 31 May 2027 the Senate adopts a rule, or a law takes effect, that takes away, shares or puts under someone else's approval at least one power of the lieutenant governor, such as appointments, control of committees or of the order of bills, or seats on boards. A change only to the five-ninths vote or to rules for when the lieutenant governor is away does not count, and CBS News and PBS NewsHour are the backups.

The pattern behind it

5 of 8
Five of eight times, a US state majority took at least one power from a newly elected official of the other party before its first regular session ended, and three times it took none.

We looked for cases where a US state election gave an important office to one party while the other party kept its majority in the legislature, and that majority then decided whether to take some of the official's powers before its first regular session ended. We found eight such times since 1985, four of them in North Carolina. Texas has none: every lieutenant governor after Bullock was a Republican. (TIME; CBS News)