Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market25 Aug 2026

Will Ofwat publish a decision on the London & Valley Water proposal before 31 October 2026?

BinaryResolves 31 Oct 2026
Hunch39%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Ofwat published no decision or consultation on the London & Valley Water proposal before 31 October 2026: its own news feed lists nothing on it up to its last item of 29 October, and The Guardian reported on 29 October that the deal still awaited a government decision; Ofwat's web pages themselves block automated and browser access, so they were not read directly.

Resolved 31 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on a published Ofwat statement on ofwat.gov.uk setting out whether it supports the London & Valley Water proposal; launching a public consultation on the proposal counts as a decision, an interim update or a further request for information does not. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and the Financial Times settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases
Three of the three verified cases since 1989 were resolved without special administration: Thames Water's own restructuring plan in 2025, Southern Water's recapitalisation in 2021 and the sale of Wessex Water in 2002. The record is unanimous but thin, and the reason it is unanimous matters more than the count: each time, a buyer or a creditor group was willing to take the company on terms the regulator could live with, so the state never had to choose. Thames Water is the first case in which the government wrote down its objections before the regulator decided. Three cases is below the four Hunch requires, so no History is shown.

We found three water companies in the same position since 1989. We looked at every water and sewerage company in England and Wales since privatisation whose owner could no longer carry its debt, and where control was forced to change or a court approved a restructuring. We asked whether it went into special administration or was solved another way. A fourth case, Welsh Water in 2001, fits but could not be confirmed on sources we trust, so it is left out. Three cases are too few for us to show a History figure.