Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market18 Sep 2026

Does the government answer the Thames Water report by 17 December?

BinaryResolves 17 Dec 2026
History54%
Hunch45%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 17 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Not one of the 28 responses since 2020 has arrived inside 61 days, and the nearest match to this one, the same committee's water sector report of June 2025, has gone 460 days without a reply.

How this resolves

The response market resolves on the same register, where a government reply appears against HC 664 either as a special report or as a government response document. It resolves YES if that reply is published on or before 17 December 2026, whatever it says about the creditors' offer. A holding letter asking for more time does not count. If the register has not updated, reports of the response in the Financial Times and the BBC settle it.

The pattern behind it

4 of 8
Four of the eight most recent reports had a departmental witness back before the committee within 41 days. Across all 28 reports since 2020 it is 14, exactly half, and 41 days is the median of that record.

After half of the 28 reports, the department was back within 41 days. We looked at every report this committee has published since January 2020, leaving out hearings on appointments and this report itself. For each we counted the days until a minister or an official from the environment department next gave evidence to the committee in person. That session does not have to be about the report. One sitting can follow several reports: three of the eight shown here led to the same sitting on 7 July 2026, and two to one on 9 September 2025.