Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market10 Sep 2026

Does HM Treasury designate a fifth Critical Third Party by 11 October 2026?

BinaryResolves 11 Oct 2026
History14%
Hunch17%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

By 11 October 2026 no fifth Critical Third Party had been designated: legislation.gov.uk lists no amendment to the Critical Third Parties (Designation) Regulations 2026 (SI 2026/777), and Reuters reported on 10 July 2026 that only four firms are designated, AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft and Oracle.

Resolved 11 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The fifth-designation market resolves on the designation instrument itself: an amendment to the Critical Third Parties (Designation) Regulations 2026 laid on legislation.gov.uk and announced on gov.uk. It resolves YES only if a fifth entity stands designated on or before 11 October 2026; a consultation, a regulator recommendation, a reported candidate list or a de-designation resolves NO. If an instrument is laid without an announcement, the Bank of England and FCA Critical Third Parties pages, which list the designated firms, settle it.

The pattern behind it

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One of the seven first designation rounds since 2012 grew within 90 days: the US Financial Stability Oversight Council, which designated Prudential Financial 73 days after AIG and GE Capital, having already put a queue of companies on notice. The other six stood still, and in four of them the second name arrived only after a year or more: the EU gatekeeper list took 236 days, the UK payment systems list seven years, and the DORA and Tier 2 clearing lists are reviewed on an annual cycle by design. HM Treasury has named no candidate for a fifth Critical Third Party.

We looked for first lists of this kind: a national or EU authority used a new legal power to name specific financial firms as critical to the system and to supervise them directly. We checked whether at least one more firm was added to the list within 90 days of the start. We found seven first lists since 2012, and only one grew in that time.