Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market10 Sep 2026

Do the regulators publish a new Critical Third Parties document by 9 October?

BinaryResolves 9 Oct 2026
Hunch34%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No new Critical Third Parties document came out between 10 September and 9 October 2026: the Bank of England page was last updated on 10 July 2026, the Bank's publications feed and the FCA publications feed list none, and the Bank's 9 October item on a cloud outage exercise is a press notice, which does not count.

Resolved 9 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The publication market resolves on the dated document lists on the Bank of England and FCA Critical Third Parties pages. It resolves YES if either carries a new document on the regime, meaning a rule instrument, statement of policy, consultation paper, supervisory statement or oversight report, dated between 10 September and 9 October 2026; speeches, blogs, press notices and page refreshes without a new document resolve NO. If neither page is updated in time, the Bank and FCA publication feeds settle it.

The pattern behind it

1 of 7
One of the seven first designation rounds since 2012 grew within 90 days: the US Financial Stability Oversight Council, which designated Prudential Financial 73 days after AIG and GE Capital, having already put a queue of companies on notice. The other six stood still, and in four of them the second name arrived only after a year or more: the EU gatekeeper list took 236 days, the UK payment systems list seven years, and the DORA and Tier 2 clearing lists are reviewed on an annual cycle by design. HM Treasury has named no candidate for a fifth Critical Third Party.

We looked for first lists of this kind: a national or EU authority used a new legal power to name specific financial firms as critical to the system and to supervise them directly. We checked whether at least one more firm was added to the list within 90 days of the start. We found seven first lists since 2012, and only one grew in that time.