No signed US-Belarus potash agreement or presidential order appeared by 23 October 2026: the White House presidential actions page lists nothing on Belarus or potash up to 23 October, and Al Jazeera reported on 14 October only a first shipment while a larger deal was still being worked on.
Hunch. Washington and Minsk have closed quick trades before, prisoners for sanctions relief in December 2025 and the delisting of Belaruskali in March, so a short document could come faster here than in any trade deal of the record, which is why the estimate is not zero.
The October market resolves YES if, between 21 September and 23 October 2026, the US government and the government of Belarus or Belaruskali sign an agreement or memorandum on US purchases of Belarusian potash, or Donald Trump signs an order giving effect to such a deal, as published by the White House or the Belarusian president's office. If neither publishes it, reports by two of Reuters, BBC News and the Guardian settle it; an announcement or joint statement without signatures resolves NO.
We found eight such deals, and none was signed within a month. We looked for times when Donald Trump announced that a big purchase deal with another government was being prepared, before anything was signed. A deal counts as signed when there is a signed text, a signed memorandum or a presidential order that puts it into effect. Two things are different this time. In all eight cases the other government was buying from the US, and here the US is buying. And one man, Donald Trump, decided on the US side every time. Four of the eight come from the July 2025 round of tariff deals, with different partners but a shared 1 August deadline. The closest cases come first.