Hunch. Both fast signings were with Japan after months of talks between allies, while here nothing has been published beyond the post, and for the first time in the record the US is the side that buys.
The December market asks the same question with the same test and the same sources, and resolves on 20 December 2026 instead.
We found eight such deals, and none was signed within a month. We looked for times when Donald Trump announced that a big purchase deal with another government was being prepared, before anything was signed. A deal counts as signed when there is a signed text, a signed memorandum or a presidential order that puts it into effect. Two things are different this time. In all eight cases the other government was buying from the US, and here the US is buying. And one man, Donald Trump, decided on the US side every time. Four of the eight come from the July 2025 round of tariff deals, with different partners but a shared 1 August deadline. The closest cases come first.