Hunch. The US Treasury took Belarus entities off its sanctions list on 26 March, 23 July and 17 September 2026, about one step every two months, and a potash deal would give Washington a reason for another.
The sanctions market resolves YES if, between 22 September and 20 December 2026, the US Treasury's OFAC removes a Belarusian company or state body from its sanctions list under the Belarus programme, as shown on the OFAC recent actions page at ofac.treasury.gov. A general licence without a removal from the list does not count.
We found eight such deals, and none was signed within a month. We looked for times when Donald Trump announced that a big purchase deal with another government was being prepared, before anything was signed. A deal counts as signed when there is a signed text, a signed memorandum or a presidential order that puts it into effect. Two things are different this time. In all eight cases the other government was buying from the US, and here the US is buying. And one man, Donald Trump, decided on the US side every time. Four of the eight come from the July 2025 round of tariff deals, with different partners but a shared 1 August deadline. The closest cases come first.