History. 7 of 8 cases.
Hunch. Trump's own interior and energy secretaries rejected an export ban in public this year, and in 2022 refiners refused a similar request, which weighs against a record that has never missed when the leader spoke himself.
The export limit market resolves on the Federal Register and the White House presidential actions page: YES if between 22 September and 30 November 2026 the US formally limits or bans diesel exports, or if Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Phillips 66 or ExxonMobil publicly commits in its own statement to cut diesel exports or keep more diesel for the US market. BBC News and Reuters settle it if the official pages are unreachable; a statement that a ban is being studied does not count.
We looked for times when a leader, or ministers speaking for him, publicly threatened a tough step against his own country's industry to bring a price down at home. In each case no decision had yet been taken, he could act without parliament, and the industry openly opposed him. We counted a result if, within 69 days, the government acted or the industry gave way. We found eight cases since 1962. Only one, Mexico in 2021, is outside the United States, and two are the same president against the same drug makers.