History. 1 of 8 cases. Only Mexico in 2021 imposed the full measure named in the threat.
Hunch. Scott Bessent spoke of a full or partial ban, refiners warn that a full ban would also cut petrol output, and the UK and the Netherlands rely on US diesel, so a partial step is the likelier form if any comes.
The full ban market resolves on the Federal Register and the White House presidential actions page: YES only if by 30 November 2026 an order bans all US diesel exports with no quota, share or licence route. A partial limit, a ban on some destinations or a temporary licence system resolves NO, and BBC News and Reuters are the backup.
We looked for times when a leader, or ministers speaking for him, publicly threatened a tough step against his own country's industry to bring a price down at home. In each case no decision had yet been taken, he could act without parliament, and the industry openly opposed him. We counted a result if, within 69 days, the government acted or the industry gave way. We found eight cases since 1962. Only one, Mexico in 2021, is outside the United States, and two are the same president against the same drug makers.