By 31 October 2026 the US had set no limit on diesel exports: the Federal Register has no such rule or order, and the White House presidential actions page, whose latest item is from 28 October, has none.
History. 2 of 8 cases had a formal measure within 39 days of the threat: Mexico in 2021 after two to three days, and the US soybean ban in 1973 after 14 days. The 2020 drug order came on day 51.
Hunch. Donald Trump supported the idea himself and Scott Bessent said a full or partial ban is being studied, which points above the record; against that, his own ministers rejected an export ban in public three times this year and refiners are lobbying against it.
The 31 October market resolves on the Federal Register and the White House presidential actions page: YES if between 22 September and 31 October 2026 the President, the White House or the Commerce Department formally announces any limit on US diesel exports, full or partial, including a quota, a licence rule or a ban on some destinations. BBC News and Reuters settle it if the official pages are unreachable; a statement that a ban is being studied does not count.
We looked for times when a leader, or ministers speaking for him, publicly threatened a tough step against his own country's industry to bring a price down at home. In each case no decision had yet been taken, he could act without parliament, and the industry openly opposed him. We counted a result if, within 69 days, the government acted or the industry gave way. We found eight cases since 1962. Only one, Mexico in 2021, is outside the United States, and two are the same president against the same drug makers.