History. 0 of 4: from 1987 to 2015, when these fast-track resolutions existed, the first veto of a new Congress run by the other party was each time on an ordinary bill. In 2019 and 2023, when the other party won only the House, it was on such a resolution both times.
Hunch. Senator Andy Kim said on 24 September that Democrats had come to the Senate 11 times in 208 days to try to end the Iran war, and from January they will hold the majority.
The fast-track market counts only if Trump vetoes a bill or joint resolution of the new Congress by 30 June 2027; if he does not, it is void and does not count for accuracy. It resolves YES if that first veto is on a resolution to stop military action, end a national emergency or cancel a new government rule, checked on congress.gov and the veto message, with the Guardian, BBC News and NPR as backups.
We looked for cases where the party opposed to the president had just won both chambers of the US Congress, and counted the days from the first sitting of that new Congress to the president's first veto of one of its bills. Since 1919 this has happened seven times. Each of those presidents used a veto in the first year. (US House of Representatives; US House of Representatives; American Presidency Project)