History. 1 of 7: only in 1987 did both chambers override the first veto, on a water bill Reagan had vetoed once before; the other six first vetoes stood.
Hunch. Democrats will have 54 Senate seats, and this year no more than four Republicans joined them on the Iran war, far short of the 67 votes needed to override.
The override market counts only on the same condition, a veto by 30 June 2027; otherwise it is void and does not count for accuracy. It resolves YES if by 31 July 2027 both chambers vote by two-thirds to pass that first vetoed bill anyway, checked on House and Senate records of votes, with the Guardian, BBC News and NPR as backups.
We looked for cases where the party opposed to the president had just won both chambers of the US Congress, and counted the days from the first sitting of that new Congress to the president's first veto of one of its bills. Since 1919 this has happened seven times. Each of those presidents used a veto in the first year. (US House of Representatives; US House of Representatives; American Presidency Project)