North Korea fired a short-range ballistic missile into the sea off its east coast on 20 September 2026, confirmed by Japanese and South Korean defence officials (Reuters, The Independent). Resolved on these two reports by editor's decision; BBC News and the Guardian did not carry the launch.
The launch market resolves YES if South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff or Japan's Ministry of Defense confirm a North Korean ballistic missile launch between 21 August and 23:59 BST on 20 September 2026, reported by at least two of BBC News, Reuters and The Guardian. The salvo of 20 August does not count; cruise-missile, artillery and engine tests do not count.
After three of four past cuts, North Korea escalated within a year. We looked at every time since 1992 that Washington cancelled, paused or sharply cut a big joint exercise with South Korea to draw North Korea into talks. There are four. For each we checked whether the North escalated within twelve months, with a missile launch, a step in its nuclear programme or by leaving an arms-control agreement. Only the 1994 deal bought a freeze that lasted, and it ended in 2002.