By 30 September 2026 neither the White House nor North Korea had announced a Trump–Kim meeting with a date or venue; NK News on 17 September and La Voce di New York on 30 September both report no scheduled meeting.
The summit market resolves YES if the White House, the US State Department or North Korean state authorities announce a scheduled Trump–Kim meeting with a stated timeframe or venue, confirmed by at least two of BBC News, Reuters and The Guardian, by 23:59 BST on 30 September 2026.
After three of four past cuts, North Korea escalated within a year. We looked at every time since 1992 that Washington cancelled, paused or sharply cut a big joint exercise with South Korea to draw North Korea into talks. There are four. For each we checked whether the North escalated within twelve months, with a missile launch, a step in its nuclear programme or by leaving an arms-control agreement. Only the 1994 deal bought a freeze that lasted, and it ended in 2002.