Tue, 19 May 2026
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Market14 Sep 2026

Is a US order removing the Irish whiskey tariff signed by 14 Oct?

BinaryResolves 14 Oct 2026
History50%
Hunch30%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No executive order, proclamation or Federal Register notice setting the US tariff on Irish whiskey to zero was signed or published between 13 September and 14 October 2026, according to the White House presidential actions page and a Federal Register search on 15 October.

Resolved 14 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The first market resolves on the White House presidential actions page at whitehouse.gov and on federalregister.gov, both published on the day of signing or within days. It resolves YES if an executive order, proclamation or Federal Register notice, including one from USTR, that sets the US tariff on whiskey originating in Ireland to zero is signed or published between 13 September and 14 October 2026; a statement, a fact sheet or a Truth Social post does not count. If those pages have not updated, BBC News NI and the Independent (PA) settle it, and silence on all three resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

4 of 8
Four of Trump's last eight spoken tariff promises were signed into an order within 30 days: coffee and beef in 3, China's fentanyl cut in 5, gold in 25, Vietnam in 29. Scotch, EU cars, Japan cars, UK deal: 85, 60, 44, 39 days.

We looked at every time in Donald Trump's second term when he promised out loud, on Truth Social, at a podium or to reporters, to cut tariffs on a named product or country, with nothing signed that day. We checked whether an executive order, proclamation or Federal Register notice made the cut official within 30 days. We found nine such promises since March 2025 and show the last eight.