Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market14 Sep 2026

Does the Irish government say the zero tariff is in force by 14 Oct?

BinaryResolves 14 Oct 2026
Hunch25%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

gov.ie published no release by 14 October 2026 saying the US tariff on Irish whiskey had been removed or was at zero; its press release search for whiskey and tariff shows no such statement.

Resolved 14 Oct 2026
How this resolves

(adjacent). The second market resolves on the gov.ie news page, which carries Department of the Taoiseach and Department of Enterprise releases on the day. It resolves YES if a release published on or before 14 October 2026 states that the US tariff on Irish whiskey has been removed or is at zero; a release welcoming the promise or reporting talks resolves NO. If gov.ie has not published, BBC News NI and the Independent (PA) settle it, and silence resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

4 of 8
Four of Trump's last eight spoken tariff promises were signed into an order within 30 days: coffee and beef in 3, China's fentanyl cut in 5, gold in 25, Vietnam in 29. Scotch, EU cars, Japan cars, UK deal: 85, 60, 44, 39 days.

We looked at every time in Donald Trump's second term when he promised out loud, on Truth Social, at a podium or to reporters, to cut tariffs on a named product or country, with nothing signed that day. We checked whether an executive order, proclamation or Federal Register notice made the cut official within 30 days. We found nine such promises since March 2025 and show the last eight.