On 4 November 2026 the Federal Register has no document since 1 September that mentions whiskey and no presidential document from 28 October to 2 November on Irish or EU spirits, and the Irish enterprise department's press page has nothing on a whiskey tariff, so no instrument set the tariff at zero on 3 November and silence resolves NO.
(adjacent, long). The fourth market resolves on federalregister.gov and gov.ie. It resolves YES if, on 3 November 2026, a signed and published US instrument sets the tariff on whiskey originating in Ireland at zero and that instrument is in effect on that date, confirmed by a gov.ie release; an instrument signed but not yet in effect, or a rate above zero, resolves NO. If either page has not updated, BBC News NI and the Independent (PA) settle it, and silence resolves NO.
We looked at every time in Donald Trump's second term when he promised out loud, on Truth Social, at a podium or to reporters, to cut tariffs on a named product or country, with nothing signed that day. We checked whether an executive order, proclamation or Federal Register notice made the cut official within 30 days. We found nine such promises since March 2025 and show the last eight.