Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market12 Sep 2026

Does Burnham or Bryant answer Trump's united Ireland line by 27 Sep?

BinaryResolves 27 Sep 2026
History50%
Hunch45%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

By 27 September 2026 neither Andy Burnham nor Chris Bryant answered a question about Trump's united Ireland remarks in a way the rule counts: the replies were a Downing Street spokesperson line and a Bryant social media post, the gov.uk readouts of Burnham's meetings with the Taoiseach (18 September) and Trump (22 September) do not mention the remarks, and reports of both meetings record no question to Burnham on them.

Resolved 27 Sep 2026
How this resolves

Resolves YES if, by 23:59 BST on 27 September 2026, Hansard records the Prime Minister or the Northern Ireland Secretary speaking about Trump's united Ireland remarks (statement, urgent question, oral question or PMQs), or GOV.UK publishes a statement, speech or readout in either name that refers to them, or BBC News and the Guardian both report an on-record interview, speech or press-conference answer by either man to a question about the remarks. Downing Street spokesperson lines, NIO spokesperson lines and other ministers do not count. Hansard and parliament.uk block automated fetching, so the BBC and Guardian reports settle it if those pages cannot be read; silence on all three resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

4 of 8
Four of the last eight drew a reply in the PM's or NI Secretary's own name within seven days: Biden 2021 (twice), Neal 2022, Biden 2023. All four had him in the room; the remote four got spokespeople. Since 1998, six of eleven.

All four replies came when the UK leader was in the room. We looked for public comments since 1998 on Northern Ireland's border, its peace settlement or whether it stays in the UK, made by a US president, a candidate for president, the Speaker of the US Congress or the leader of a visiting group from Congress. We found eleven and show the last eight. For each we checked whether the Prime Minister or the Northern Ireland Secretary answered in their own name within seven days, in Parliament, in a government statement or on the record to reporters. A spokesperson's words do not count.