Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market12 Sep 2026

Does Sinn Féin table a unity or border poll motion by 13 Oct?

BinaryResolves 13 Oct 2026
Hunch35%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No Sinn Féin motion or bill on a border poll or Irish unity was tabled between 13 September and 13 October 2026: the Oireachtas bills and Dáil debates records and the Northern Ireland Assembly Official Reports for every sitting up to 13 October show none, and BBC News and the Independent report none; Oireachtas order papers were read through the Oireachtas data service, not the blocked website.

Resolved 13 Oct 2026
How this resolves

(adjacent). Resolves YES if, by 23:59 BST on 13 October 2026, a motion or bill in Sinn Féin's name calling for a border poll, a unity referendum or government preparation for Irish unity is tabled in the Dáil (oireachtas.ie business papers or debates record) or the Northern Ireland Assembly (aims.niassembly.gov.uk motions or Official Report). Oireachtas.ie blocks automated fetching, so BBC News and the Independent settle it as fallbacks; a Sinn Féin motion tabled before 13 September or a motion in another party's name resolves NO, and silence on all sources resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

4 of 8
Four of the last eight drew a reply in the PM's or NI Secretary's own name within seven days: Biden 2021 (twice), Neal 2022, Biden 2023. All four had him in the room; the remote four got spokespeople. Since 1998, six of eleven.

All four replies came when the UK leader was in the room. We looked for public comments since 1998 on Northern Ireland's border, its peace settlement or whether it stays in the UK, made by a US president, a candidate for president, the Speaker of the US Congress or the leader of a visiting group from Congress. We found eleven and show the last eight. For each we checked whether the Prime Minister or the Northern Ireland Secretary answered in their own name within seven days, in Parliament, in a government statement or on the record to reporters. A spokesperson's words do not count.