Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market06 Nov 2026

Will RMT and TfL settle the Tube dispute by noon on 26 November?

BinaryResolves 26 Nov 2026
History0%
Hunch4%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 26 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. None of the ten ended in a deal before the first date. The RMT did settle in February 2017 after naming dates nine days ahead, and with that strike it is one of eleven.

Hunch. On 6 November the RMT said London Underground must withdraw its plan and engage seriously to reach a negotiated settlement.

How this resolves

The deal market resolves YES only if before noon London time on 26 November 2026 both the RMT and TfL or London Underground say they have a deal in this dispute and the RMT withdraws or suspends all eight dates and does not say the dispute goes on. Dropping dates for talks without a deal, a partial agreement or an offer put to members is NO, and the RMT's statement confirmed by BBC or The Guardian settles it, with those two alone if the RMT page does not open.

The pattern behind it

7 of 10
Seven of ten times the RMT named dates after both dropping and going ahead with strikes in that dispute, the first strike began and three times it was dropped, and with 13 others twelve of twenty-three began.

We looked for cases where a British union named strike dates in a dispute in which it had already dropped one strike and gone ahead with another. Ten fit, all of them RMT strikes. Five were on the Tube and five on the railways. Each named two or more dates at least ten days ahead, with no other union for the same staff shown striking with it at that point.