Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market06 Nov 2026

Will RMT and TfL hold new talks by noon on 26 November?

BinaryResolves 26 Nov 2026
Hunch60%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 26 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. This year the two sides met before the March and June dates. The Guardian reported no last-minute talks before the April strikes and no talks by 15 May, four days before the May strikes.

Hunch. On 6 November the RMT said London Underground must withdraw its plan and engage seriously, and on 1 June it sat for five hours at Acas the day before a strike.

How this resolves

The talks market resolves YES if between 7 November and noon London time on 26 November 2026 representatives of the RMT and London Underground or TfL meet about this dispute, directly or at Acas, and NO if they do not, with invitations, letters and appeals alone counting as NO. A statement by the RMT or TfL settles it, confirmed by BBC or The Guardian, and if neither side speaks both BBC and The Guardian must report the meeting by 27 November.

The pattern behind it

7 of 10
Seven of ten times the RMT named dates after both dropping and going ahead with strikes in that dispute, the first strike began and three times it was dropped, and with 13 others twelve of twenty-three began.

We looked for cases where a British union named strike dates in a dispute in which it had already dropped one strike and gone ahead with another. Ten fit, all of them RMT strikes. Five were on the Tube and five on the railways. Each named two or more dates at least ten days ahead, with no other union for the same staff shown striking with it at that point.