History. 3 of 8. Wallinger 2007, Darling 2023 and Kalu 2025 won. When the critic and the most tipped disagreed, as now, it went one each way: Himid beat the critic's pick in 2017, Kalu won for the critic in 2025.
Hunch. Prospect's critic called Sasraku's Watchlist the strongest work in the show, so the leading critics do not agree on Freije this year (Prospect, 29 Sep 2026).
Resolves on Tate's announcement on 10 December 2026, checked on tate.org.uk/press on 11 December: YES if Kira Freije is the only winner, NO if another artist wins. A shared prize, as in 2019, or an announcement moved from 10 December resolves VOID. The Guardian and BBC News are the backup.
We looked for cases where the Turner Prize show took place outside London, as it does this year, and the Guardian's main art critic named the artist who should win when the show opened. Then we checked who was most tipped at that time. We found eight years, from 2007 to 2025. The critic's pick won in three. The most tipped also won in three, though in three years who was most tipped is not on record.