History. 3 of 8. Wallinger 2007, Himid 2017 and Darling 2023 won. In the five years where the most tipped is on record, three won. Sehgal in 2013 and Sami in 2025 lost.
Hunch. The jury praised the precision and sophistication of the show she is nominated for, and Prospect called her work the strongest in Middlesbrough (Tate, 23 Apr 2026; Prospect, 29 Sep 2026).
Resolves on the same Tate announcement on 10 December 2026: YES if Tanoa Sasraku is the only winner, NO if another artist wins. A shared prize or a moved announcement resolves VOID. The Guardian and BBC News are the backup.
We looked for cases where the Turner Prize show took place outside London, as it does this year, and the Guardian's main art critic named the artist who should win when the show opened. Then we checked who was most tipped at that time. We found eight years, from 2007 to 2025. The critic's pick won in three. The most tipped also won in three, though in three years who was most tipped is not on record.