History. 4 of 8: Boyce 2011, Prouvost 2013, Assemble 2015 and Ryan 2022. In three of those four, who was most tipped is not on record. Where it is, this happened once in five years, in 2013.
Hunch. Both critics were cool on the two: Jones called Humeau all form and no content, and Prospect called Barclay's room probably the weakest (The Guardian, 24 Sep 2026; Prospect, 29 Sep 2026).
Resolves on the same Tate announcement on 10 December 2026: YES if Simeon Barclay or Marguerite Humeau is the only winner, NO if Kira Freije or Tanoa Sasraku wins. A shared prize or a moved announcement resolves VOID. The Guardian and BBC News are the backup.
We looked for cases where the Turner Prize show took place outside London, as it does this year, and the Guardian's main art critic named the artist who should win when the show opened. Then we checked who was most tipped at that time. We found eight years, from 2007 to 2025. The critic's pick won in three. The most tipped also won in three, though in three years who was most tipped is not on record.