History. 6 of 6: all six bank laws from 2010 to 2013 passed in final votes, at most 216 days after the first chamber's vote (US, 2010); here the window runs 280 days from the Council of States vote of 23 September 2026.
Hunch. The largest party in the National Council, the Swiss People's Party, called the rule out of proportion in January, and it can still vote the law down.
The law market resolves on the record of final votes for business 26.027 on the Swiss Parliament website: YES if, by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 pm New York time, both chambers pass in final votes a federal act that makes big banks back all or part of the value of their foreign banks with hard capital at the Swiss parent bank, whatever the share and whatever the bill number. A vote of one chamber or a committee, or a deal between the chambers without final votes, does not count, a referendum has no effect, and swissinfo and Reuters are the backups.
We looked for cases where one chamber of a national parliament passed tougher rules for big banks, on their capital or on how they are organised, and the second chamber then voted on that text. We found six such votes from 2010 to 2013, in Switzerland, the US, the UK, France and Germany. All six laws passed in the end. Five times the second chamber kept the rules or made them tougher. Once, in Switzerland in 2011, it softened them.