History. 4 of 6: the law passed in final votes within three weeks of the second chamber's vote four times; in the US in 2010 and France in 2013 extra rounds took 56 and 118 days.
Hunch. The lower-chamber committee finishes only six days before the winter session, and the two chambers will probably need to settle differences in the same three weeks.
The winter session market resolves on the final votes recorded for business 26.027 on the Swiss Parliament website: YES if both chambers pass the law in final votes by the end of 18 December 2026, and NO if the National Council votes on it in the winter session but there are no final votes of both chambers by then, or the law fails a final vote. With no National Council vote in the winter session the market is VOID, a referendum does not count, and swissinfo and Reuters are the backups.
We looked for cases where one chamber of a national parliament passed tougher rules for big banks, on their capital or on how they are organised, and the second chamber then voted on that text. We found six such votes from 2010 to 2013, in Switzerland, the US, the UK, France and Germany. All six laws passed in the end. Five times the second chamber kept the rules or made them tougher. Once, in Switzerland in 2011, it softened them.