Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market25 Sep 2026

Will the 28 October Budget cut or scrap Britain's tax on tech firms?

BinaryResolves 28 Oct 2026
History33%
Hunch16%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The Budget 2026 document and the Chancellor's speech of 28 October 2026 make no change to the Digital Services Tax, and GOV.UK has no earlier Treasury or Downing Street statement cutting or pausing it.

Resolved 28 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 2 of 6. We looked at six cases where the US threatened tariffs over a tax like this. Canada and India dropped theirs within five weeks; Britain twice, France and five other countries kept theirs.

Hunch.

  • For: Trump has threatened a 100% tariff, and his trade representative says it is not a bluff.
  • For: Andy Burnham is new in the job and met Trump for the first time on 22 September.
  • Against: Britain kept the tax through two earlier rounds of US pressure, in 2021 and 2025.
  • Against: The US has set no deadline and has opened no formal trade case.
  • Against: Borrowing is above forecast, so losing about £800m a year would be hard to cover.
How this resolves

The Budget market resolves on GOV.UK: YES if, by the end of 28 October 2026, the Budget documents or an earlier HM Treasury or Downing Street statement announce a repeal of the Digital Services Tax, a rate below 2%, a higher threshold, a pause of the tax or an exemption for some companies. A delay to payment dates, a promise to remove the tax once a global deal takes effect, talks and leaks do not count; if GOV.UK is unclear, BBC News and the Guardian reports settle it.

The pattern behind it

2 of 6
In 2 of 6 cases since 2019 did a government drop its tax on tech firms after a US tariff threat. Both did so within five weeks; the other four kept the tax.

We looked for cases where the US named a trade punishment to make a country drop a tax that falls mostly on American tech firms, and that country's government had to decide. We found six since 2019, two of them British. Canada and India dropped their taxes, both within five weeks of the threat. Britain twice, France and five other countries kept theirs. Where the US announced tariffs over such a tax, it suspended them at once.