Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market25 Sep 2026

Does a US tariff over Britain's tech tax start by 30 November?

BinaryResolves 30 Nov 2026
History0%
Hunch5%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 30 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. 0 of 6. In none of the six cases did a US tariff over the tax come into force. For Britain, France and five other countries the US announced tariffs and suspended them in the same notice.

Hunch.

  • For: Trump wrote that the tariff would come immediately and would override trade deals.
  • For: The US put new tariffs on 60 countries in July.
  • Against: The US has opened no formal trade case over Britain's tax.
  • Against: Greer says he does not set artificial timelines.
How this resolves

The tariff market resolves on the Federal Register and the White House list of presidential actions: YES if, by 30 November 2026, extra US duties on goods from the United Kingdom are in effect and the order or notice names the Digital Services Tax as a reason. Tariffs announced but suspended, or starting after 30 November, do not count; Reuters and BBC News are the backup.

The pattern behind it

2 of 6
In 2 of 6 cases since 2019 did a government drop its tax on tech firms after a US tariff threat. Both did so within five weeks; the other four kept the tax.

We looked for cases where the US named a trade punishment to make a country drop a tax that falls mostly on American tech firms, and that country's government had to decide. We found six since 2019, two of them British. Canada and India dropped their taxes, both within five weeks of the threat. Britain twice, France and five other countries kept theirs. Where the US announced tariffs over such a tax, it suspended them at once.