History. 0 of 9. None of the nine prime ministers who took over with a working majority and at least two years to spare called an election within 164 days. The earliest, Stanley Baldwin in 1923, came a few days later.
Hunch.
The 2026 market resolves on the Prime Minister's Office news page on GOV.UK: YES if, between 25 September and 31 December 2026, the Prime Minister or Downing Street announces the date of a UK general election or says the King has been asked to dissolve Parliament, even if polling day is in 2027. If GOV.UK is silent, BBC News and the Guardian reports of the announcement settle it.
We looked for cases where a UK prime minister took over between elections from a leader of the same party, with a working majority and at least two years before an election was due. We found nine since 1902. None of them called an election in the first five months. Two called one within a year, Stanley Baldwin in 1923 and Theresa May in 2017. Both said they needed support for a new policy, and both lost their majority.