The Commission published no enlargement safeguard communication or proposal by 10 August 2026, per its enlargement press pages.
The safeguards market resolves YES if the European Commission publishes a formal communication or legislative proposal on enlargement reform/post-accession safeguards on its press corner (ec.europa.eu) on or before 10 August 2026.
We looked at the last five countries whose EU membership talks passed an opening step, and asked what happened next. They split into two groups. Two kept opening new chapters of talks. Three opened talks and then stalled for years.