The Security Council did not recommend Rebeca Grynspan by 31 October 2026: its 2026 resolutions page has no recommendation for Secretary-General, and Reuters reported on 30 October that she only led an informal straw poll.
Hunch. The extra eight days cover the slowest case in the record, 2016, but they also leave room for a fourth and a fifth poll, and in 2016 a new candidate was nominated at exactly this stage.
The end-of-month market asks the same question with eight more days and resolves the same way, on the Council's page of 2026 resolutions at main.un.org, with BBC News, Reuters and the Guardian as backup.
We looked at every race for UN secretary-general since 1991 in which the Security Council had three or more straw polls. There are four. In each we asked whether the person leading after the third poll was then recommended by the Council, and how fast. The same Council, with the same five veto powers, decided all four. Only the 2016 race ran under today's open rules, with public candidates and hearings. For 1991 and 1996 our sources name the leader only in New York Times headlines, without the vote counts.