Does the 30-year US Treasury par yield close below 5.00 per cent on or before 11 September 2026?

Three of the last five major bond routs since 1994 were capped by the intervention, and in each the fix altered real supply or demand: unlimited Fed purchases in 2020, the Bank of England's £65bn gilt operation in 2022, the Treasury's issuance shift in November 2023. Reassurance and half-measures, as in 1994 and 2013, let yields climb for months. The window and the full record are the same five cases, because routs of this size are rare. A doubled buyback recycles existing debt rather than cutting issuance, which places 19 August closer to the two failures than to the three that worked, and the relief faded within a day.